India 2050 uncertain future
India is playing an increasingly important role in the global economy and, correspondingly, in resource use and emissions. Yet, the modelling tools for exploring the opportunities and threats for India, and for other parts of the world as a consequence of this development, suffer from conceptual limitations. This report explores options for improvement, especially given the large heterogeneity of India that is difficult to capture in aggregate average data. Model-based simulations indicate that India's population by 2050 will be over 1.5 billion, displaying a large population momentum that is one of the drivers of economic growth. Forward calculations with the demographic model, PHOENIX, and the IFs Economy model show that such developments of population and income are possible, provided that sufficient and timely investments in health care and education take place. Additional model simulations, including those using the TIMER energy model, indicate that ecological and socio-economic constraints might bar these positive developments. Only rigorous government policy initiatives striving for sustainable management of India's resources (land, water, energy) and appropriate investments in education and health can lead to a real increase in well-being for a large part of the population.
Future China vs. India
forsee a war between China and India in the future. A former head of the World Bank (or it might have been the IMF) recently said that China and India would, before 2050, overtake the G7 in terms of GDP. And many can see that China and India will be the next world superpowers. These countries are developing and growing at a fantastic rate. There are basic, fundamental differences between India and China, in terms of Government (Democracy vs. Socialist), Ideology, and Economy (China is gearing itself towards industry, whereas India is going more toward the service sector). Both China and India are heavily armed, and updating their militaries. Both are nucleur armed nations. Both are increasing their spending on the armed forces. China has the largest military in the world, and India has the 4th largest. These issues would cause another cold war, like what was experienced between the USA and the USSR. HOWEVER, unlike the US and USSR, there is no ocean seperating China and India. They share a border! The USA and the USSR had different spheres of influence during the Cold War. The US had South America and Western Europe, and the USSR had Asia and Eastern Europe. They STILL came very, very close to war. India and China do NOT have seperate spheres of influence. They are right next to each other. They are competing for essentially the same markets. Furthermore, they have a hisory of conflict. For these reasons, I predict a war between India and China.
India and Pakistan Future
India and Pakistan have been locked in a bitter rivalry with decades-old roots that have almost erupted into outright war several times. In a contentious post-9/11 world, the threat is even greater as the conflict has, on multiple occasions, threatened to escalate into nuclear war.
However, as a year full of international tension and military maneuvering between India and Pakistan came to a close, there was a glimmer of hope. The two countries signed a landmark accord agreeing to cooperate on military matters. Although made between two non-official organizations, it was the first time the adversaries had worked together in such a manner. The accord outlined a plan to share limited military and security information between India’s Institute of Defense Studies and Analysis and Pakistan’s Institute for Strategic Studies.
Why such deep-seated animosity between these nuclear rivals? What does the future hold for them? Will the recently signed security pact be the first step toward lasting peace in the region.
On Dec. 13, 2001, a small group of heavily-armed Pakistani militants stormed India’s parliamentary compound, attempting to assassinate key government leaders. The plot, which left eight Indian citizens and all five terrorists dead, could have been far worse. India demanded that Pakistan take immediate and decisive action against the groups responsible. To show their seriousness, New Delhi deployed half a million Indian soldiers to the border; Pakistani forces responded in kind.
The crisis was soon averted when Pervez Musharraf, Pakistan’s president at the time, promised a government crackdown on radical groups within its borders. Nevertheless, many Indians felt as if Mr. Musharraf was only cracking down on certain groups while tacitly allowing others to continue operation.
Any hope of easing further tensions was shattered just months later, in May 2002, when militants attacked an Indian military base in Jammu, killing the wives and children of servicemen. Seen as an attack on India itself, the incident resurrected Hindu-Muslim animosity.
The international community watched as hundreds of thousands of Indian and Pakistani troops once again stared at each other across the border, this time with heightened intensity. Growing uncertainty threatened, like no other time, to “go nuclear.”
After months of hair-trigger readiness, tensions slowly eased when the Indian army was redeployed away from the border. However, decades of past bitterness remained unresolved.
Today, both countries have partial dominion over a region that each believes is rightfully theirs. Further, there remains an underlying feeling by many Indians that Pakistan has gone unpunished. In turn, Pakistan feels increasingly threatened by the presence of Indian troops amassed at the border.
Future India Information
India has a promising future, given the unprecedented growth in economy and its clout in the global issues. India is now riding on the wave of a gigantic boom in computer driven new economy. Many developed countries of the world are seeking the huge pool of English speaking talented software professionals in India. Premier professional institutes like IIT and IIM have become the source of big international corporates' human resource need, both overseas and within India.
India is also a nuclear power. Its security concerns have been to some extent allayed by the possession of nuclear weapons, though fears remain of an expensive military expenditure to sustain the nuclear programs.
India is also poised to become the entertainment superpower. Already the Bollywood is churning out hundreds of films annually. With improvements in the technical and artistic aspects India can well give a stiff competition to western productions.
Indian culture is influencing the western world in dress, food and festivals. The Indian Diaspora is increasing in economic prosperity and status. The Indian community is a force to reckon with in every country because of its contribution to the country concerned. Indian lobby groups are funding partly some of the elections in vital countries of the world.
The 21st century could well belong to India if it fully utilize its resources and expertise. India's population is an asset and not a pull down factor. Finally India is going to prove just that.
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