Next 100 Years

The Next 100 Years is a 2009 non-fiction book by George Friedman. In the book, Friedman attempts to predict the major geopolitical events and trends of the 21st century. Friedman also speculates in the book on changes in technology and culture that may take place during this period.


Friedman predicts a second American cold war with Russia in the 2010s. Friedman asserts that around 2015, the United States will become a close ally to some Eastern European countries, who will be dedicated to resisting Russian geopolitical threats during this period. Friedman speculates in the book that the United States will probably become a close ally of Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Romania, who may form a military alliance during this period. According to Friedman's prediction, around the year 2020, Russia will collapse, fragment, and disintegrate from the economic and political pressure of a second cold war.
Around this time, 2020, China will politically and culturally fragment as well, according to Friedman's prediction. Friedman asserts that the rapid economic development of China since 1980 will cause internal pressures and inequalities in Chinese society that will result in regional fragmentation of the country, primarily to economic reasons. Friedman asserts that China will remain formally united, but the central government of China will gradually lose much of its real power.
In the 2020s, and 2030's, three main powers will emerge in Eurasia, a new Turkish empire, a new Japanese empire, and a political and military alliance of Eastern European nations, referred to by Friedman as the "Polish Bloc". The United States will be allied with all three powers initially, but will gradually become an adversary of both the new Turkish empire and Japanese empire, who will grow in power in the 2020s and 2030s, and begin to threaten American interests. Friedman states that the new Japanese empire and new Turkish empire will probably form an alliance near the end of this period, in an effort to counter the overwhelming global power of the United States. Friedman also speculates that Germany and Mexico may possibly join this anti-United States coalition, however, he thinks it generally unlikely. Friedman states that in this conflict/confrontation the United States will be allied with the "Polish Bloc", and probably with China, India,a united Korea and Great Britain which enters it after fearing a Europe being dominated as France and Germany side with Turkey as well.